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10 million self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020

SDC Installed Base BI Intelligence

Self-driving cars are no longer a futuristic idea. Companies like Mercedes, BMW, and Tesla have already released, or are soon to release, self-driving features that give the car some ability to drive itself.

Tech companies are also trying to pioneer the self-driving car. Recently, Google announced that it would be testing its prototype of a driverless car on roads this summer in California.

In an in-depth report from BI Intelligence, we analyze the self-driving car market by analyzing the current state of the self-driving car and provide an in-depth analysis for how we see the self-driving car progressing over the next five years. Our in-depth analysis describes the economic impact that self-driving cars can have and look at the current barriers preventing the self-driving car from coming to market.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

Self-driving cars are not some futuristic auto technology; in fact there are already cars with self-driving features on the road. We define the self-driving car as any car with features that allow it to accelerate, brake, and steer a car's course with limited or no driver interaction.
We divide the self-driving car into two different types: semi-autonomous and fully autonomous. A fully autonomous vehicle can drive from point A to point B and encounter the entire range of on-road scenarios without needing any interaction from the driver. These will debut in 2019.
By the end of the forecast period, we expect there will be nearly 10 million cars with one of our defined self-driving car features.
Fully autonomous cars are further divided into user-operated and driverless vehicles. Because of regulatory and insurance questions, user-operated fully autonomous cars will come to market within the next five years, while driverless cars will remain a long ways off.
The biggest benefits of self-driving cars are that they will help to make roads safer and people's lives easier. In the UK, KPMG estimates that self-driving cars will lead to 2,500 fewer deaths between 2014 and 2030.
But the barriers to self-driving cars remain significant. Costs need to come down and regulations need to be clarified around certain self-driving car features before the vehicles fully take off among mainstream consumers.

In full, the report:

Explains our definition of a self-driving car and breaks down the self-driving car into five levels of possible capabilities
Sizes the current and expected self-driving car market, including shipment forecasts and expected installed base
Analyzes how both car and tech companies are approaching the self-driving car
Determines the benefits of the self-driving car
Assesses the costs and regulations preventing the self-driving car from coming to market

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